[烛光生存狂]-【请教】评价一个火山是否会喷发，查地震活跃记录会有价值么

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【明晰职场哲学的野牛】

请教大家一下，评价一个火山是否会喷发，查地震活跃记录会有价值么，还是说通过别的办法更好。

春节想去爬爬山，恰好是个火山，所以希望别因为喷发而改变路线。

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【明晰职场哲学的野牛】

我查到一些记录，似乎没用很大影响？

http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/html/update_SOEPD/EQLatest.html

希望过一段时间，这个帖子里别回复一些小蜡烛就好.....

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火山的爆发的确和地震紧密关联，但是大型火山的爆发和地震一样难以预测，都是多变量的混沌体系，不过地球上绝大部分火山都是沉寂状态，除了极少数几个比较活跃的，而且这种活跃期也是以地质年代作为计量尺度的。

基本上而言，只有爬的不是那极少数几个正在喷的火山，你中奖的概率还是微乎其微的。

我觉得查看当地的导游指南比查地震图谱要根据靠谱下

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按活动情况

1、活火山（active volcano）

指尚在活动或周期性发生喷发活动的火山。

类火山正处于活动的旺盛时期。如爪哇岛上的梅拉皮火山，本世纪以来，平均间隔两三年就要持续喷发一个时期、我国火山活动以台湾岛大屯火山群的主峰七星山最为有名。大陆上，仅在新疆昆仑山西段于田的卡尔达西火山群有过火山喷发记录。火山喷发形成了一个平顶火山锥。

2、死火山（extinct volcano）

指史前曾发生过喷发，但有史以来一直未活动过的火山。此类火山已丧失了活动能力。有的火山仍保持着完整的火山形态，有的则已遭受风化侵蚀，只剩下残缺不全的火山遗迹、我国山西大同火山群在方圆约123平方公里的范围内，分布着99个孤立的火山锥，其中狼窝山火山锥高将近1900米。

3、休眠火山（dormant volcano）

指有史以来曾经喷发过．但长期以来处于相对静止状态的火山。此类火山都保存有完好的火山锥形态，仍具有火山活动能力，或尚不能断定其已丧失火山活动能力。如我国长白山天池，曾于1327年和1658年两度喷发，在此之前还有多次活动。虽然没有喷发活动，但从山坡上一些深不可测的喷气孔中不断喷出高温气体，可见该火山如今正处于休眠状态。

应该说明的是，这三种类型的火山之间没有严格的界限。休眠火山可以复苏，死火山也可以“复活”相互间并不是一成不变的。过去一直认为意大利的维苏威火山是一个死火山，在火山脚下，人们建筑起许多的城镇，在火山坡上开辟了葡萄园，但在公元79年维苏威火山突然爆发，高温的火山喷发物袭占了毫无防备的庞贝和赫拉古农姆两座古城，两座城市及居民全部毁灭和丧生。

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_of_volcanic_activity

Prediction of volcanic activity

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (March 2007)

Prediction of volcanic eruption (also: volcanic eruption forecasting) is an interdisciplinary scientific and engineering approach to natural catastrophic event forecasting. Volcanic activity prediction has not been perfected, but significant progress has been made in recent decades. Significant amounts are spent monitoring and prediction of volcanic activity by the Italian government through the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia INGV, by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and by the Geological Survey of Japan. These are the largest institutions that invest significant resources monitoring and researching volcanos (as well as other geological phenomena). Many countries operate volcano observatories at a lesser level of funding, all of which are members of the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO).

Mount St. Helens erupted explosively on May 18, 1980 at 8:32 a.m. PDT

Contents [hide]

1 General Principles

2 Methods

2.1 Seismic Waves (Seismicity)

2.1.1 General principles of volcano seismology

2.1.2 Seismic case studies

2.1.3 Iceberg tremors

2.2 Gas emissions

2.3 Ground deformation

2.4 Thermal monitoring

2.5 Hydrology

2.6 Remote Sensing

2.7 Mass movements and mass failures

3 Local case studies

3.1 Nyiragongo

3.2 Mt. Etna

3.3 Sakurajima, Japan

4 See also

5 Notes

6 External links

General Principles[edit]

Various methods including the following sections are used to help predict eruptions. In using these methods, five major principles form the basis of eruption forecasting is as follows:

the principle of inflection points in trends states that with unknown rates of change, a point in time is reached at which the volcanic system becomes unstable and likely will erupt;

the principle of coinciding change states that one monitored parameter alone may not yield significant symptoms to diagnose an imminent eruption, but unrelated trends of several monitored parameters may start co-evolving as the system approaches a state of instability;

the principle of known behavior treats a volcano as if it were a medical patient, assuming that responses to changes in the underground may be highly individual to a volcano's particular internal structure and can become better known by understanding its past eruptive characteristics;

the principle of unexpected behavior treats volcanoes, the public, and decision-makers alike as inherently inconsistent systems - leading to unexpected eruptions (e.g., fast magma ascent from unexpected depth), and mitigation failures;

the principle of symptom-based short-term forecast as with all the other principles is similar to an epidemiological diagnosis, whereby forecasts are based on symptoms and patient history.

the principle of volcanic periods states the existence of a point where a volcano reaches the end of its respective fertility cycle, resulting in outbursts of lava and MOOD (Mountainously Oscillating Obstructive Debris) swings. Forsecasts are based on the natural cycle of fertility, with time difference ranging depending on the location of the female volcano compared to the male.

Volcanic eruptions can to date not be predicted by stochastic methods, but only by catching early symptoms before an imminent eruption. Therefore, continuous monitoring even of dormant volcanoes, though costly, is the only way to enable eruptive behavior forecasts. The following sections describe individual groups of methods typically deployed in monitoring volcanoes and the symptomatic evolution of their activity.

Methods[edit]

Seismic Waves (Seismicity)[edit]

General principles of volcano seismology[edit]

Seismic activity (earthquakes and tremors) always occurs as volcanoes awaken and prepare to erupt and are a very important link to eruptions. Some volcanoes normally have continuing low-level seismic activity, but an increase may signal a greater likelihood of an eruption. The types of earthquakes that occur and where they start and end are also key signs. Volcanic seismicity has three major forms: short-period earthquake, long-period earthquake, and harmonic tremor.

Short-period earthquakes are like normal fault-generated earthquakes. They are caused by the fracturing of brittle rock as magma forces its way upward. These short-period earthquakes signify the growth of a magma body near the surface and are known as 'A' waves. These type of seismic events are often also referred to as Volcano-Tectonic (or VT) events or earthquakes.

Long-period earthquakes are believed to indicate increased gas pressure in a volcano's plumbing system. They are similar to the clanging sometimes heard in a house's plumbing system, which is known as "water hammer". These oscillations are the equivalent of acoustic vibrations in a chamber, in the context of magma chambers within the volcanic dome and are known as 'B' waves. These are also known as resonance waves and long period resonance events.

Harmonic tremors are often the result of magma pushing against the overlying rock below the surface. They can sometimes be strong enough to be felt as humming or buzzing by people and animals, hence the name.

Patterns of seismicity are complex and often difficult to interpret; however, increasing seismic activity is a good indicator of increasing eruption risk, especially if long-period events become dominant and episodes of harmonic tremor appear.

Using a similar method, researchers can detect volcanic eruptions by monitoring infra-sound—sub-audible sound below 20 Hz. The IMS Global Infrasound Network, originally set up to verify compliance with nuclear test ban treaties, has 60 stations around the world that work to detect and locate erupting volcanoes. [1]

Seismic case studies[edit]

A relation between long-period events and imminent volcanic eruptions was first observed in the seismic records of the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia. The occurrence of long-period events were then used to predict the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska and the 1993 eruption of Galeras in Colombia. In December 2000, scientists at the National Center for Prevention of Disasters in Mexico City predicted an eruption within two days at Popocatépetl, on the outskirts of Mexico City. Their prediction used research that had been done by Bernard Chouet, a Swiss volcanologist who was working at the United States Geological Survey and who first observed a relation between long-period events and an imminent eruption.[1][2][3] The government evacuated tens of thousands of people; 48 hours later, the volcano erupted as predicted. It was Popocatépetl's largest eruption for a thousand years, yet no one was hurt.

Iceberg tremors[edit]

It has recently been published that the striking similarities between iceberg tremors, which occur when they run aground, and volcanic tremors may help experts develop a better method for predicting volcanic eruptions. Although icebergs have much simpler structures than volcanoes, they are physically easier to work with. The similarities between volcanic and iceberg tremors include long durations and amplitudes, as well as common shifts in frequencies. (Source: Canadian Geographic "Singing icebergs")

Gas emissions[edit]

Gas and ash plume erupted from Mount Pinatubo, Philippines.

As magma nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escape. This process is much like what happens when you open a bottle of fizzy drink and carbon dioxide escapes. Sulphur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it herald the arrival of increasing amounts of magma near the surface. For example, on May 13, 1991, an increasing amount of sulphur dioxide was released from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. On May 28, just two weeks later, sulphur dioxide emissions had increased to 5,000 tonnes, ten times the earlier amount. Mount Pinatubo later erupted on June 12, 1991. On several occasions, such as before the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the 1993 Galeras, Colombia eruption, sulphur dioxide emissions have dropped to low levels prior to eruptions. Most scientists believe that this drop in gas levels is caused by the sealing of gas passages by hardened magma. Such an event leads to increased pressure in the volcano's plumbing system and an increased chance of an explosive eruption.

Ground deformation[edit]

Swelling of the volcano signals that magma has accumulated near the surface. Scientists monitoring an active volcano will often measure the tilt of the slope and track changes in the rate of swelling. An increased rate of swelling, especially if accompanied by an increase in sulphur dioxide emissions and harmonic tremors is a high probability sign of an impending event. The deformation of Mount St. Helens prior to the May 18, 1980 eruption was a classic example of deformation, as the north side of the volcano was bulging upwards as magma was building up underneath. Most cases of ground deformation are usually detectable only by sophisticated equipment used by scientists, but they can still predict future eruptions this way. The Hawaiian Volcanoes show significant ground deformation; there is inflation of the ground prior to an eruption and then an obvious deflation post-eruption. This is due to the shallow magma chamber of the Hawaiian Volcanoes; movement of the magma is easily noticed on the ground above.

Thermal monitoring[edit]

Both magma movement, changes in gas release and hydrothermal activity can lead to thermal emissivity changes at the volcano's surface. These can be measured using several techniques:

forward looking infrared radiometry (FLIR) from hand-held devices installed on-site, at a distance, or airborne;

Infrared band satellite imagery;

in-situ thermometry (hot springs, fumaroles)

heat flux maps

geothermal well enthalpy changes

Hydrology[edit]

There are 4 main methods that can be used to predict a volcanic eruption through the use of hydrology:

Borehole and well hydrologic and hydraulic measurements are increasingly used to monitor changes in a volcanoes subsurface gas pressure and thermal regime. Increased gas pressure will make water levels rise and suddenly drop right before an eruption, and thermal focusing (increased local heat flow) can reduce or dry out acquifers.

Detection of lahars and other debris flows close to their sources. USGS scientists have developed an inexpensive, durable, portable and easily installed system to detect and continuously monitor the arrival and passage of debris flows and floods in river valleys that drain active volcanoes.

Pre-eruption sediment may be picked up by a river channel surrounding the volcano that shows that the actual eruption may be imminent. Most sediment is transported from volcanically disturbed watersheds during periods of heavy rainfall. This can be an indication of morphological changes and increased hydrothermal activity in absence of instrumental monitoring techniques.

Volcanic deposit that may be placed on a river bank can easily be eroded which will dramatically widen or deepen the river channel. Therefore, monitoring of the river channels width and depth can be used to assess the likelihood of a future volcanic eruption.

Remote Sensing[edit]

Remote sensing is the detection by a satellite’s sensors of electromagnetic energy that is absorbed, reflected, radiated or scattered from the surface of a volcano or from its erupted material in an eruption cloud.

'Cloud sensing: Scientists can monitor the unusually cold eruption clouds from volcanoes using data from two different thermal wavelengths to enhance the visibility of eruption clouds and discriminate them from meteorological clouds

'Gas sensing: Sulphur dioxide can also be measured by remote sensing at some of the same wavelengths as ozone. TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) can measure the amount of sulphur dioxide gas released by volcanoes in eruptions

Thermal sensing: The presence of new significant thermal signatures or 'hot spots' may indicate new heating of the ground before an eruption, represent an eruption in progress or the presence of a very recent volcanic deposit, including lava flows or pyroclastic flows.

Deformation sensing: Satellite-borne spatial radar data can be used to detect long-term geometric changes in the volcanic edifice, such as uplift and depression. In this method, called InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar), DEMs generated from radar imagery are subtracted from each other to yield a differential image, displaying rates of topographic change.

Forest Monitoring: In recent period it has been demonstrated the location of eruptive fractures could be predicted, months to years before the eruptions, by the monitoring of forest growth. This tool based on the monitoring of the trees growth has been validated at both Mt. Niyragongo and Mt. Etna during the 2002-2003 volcano eruptive events.[4]

Mass movements and mass failures[edit]

Monitoring mass movements and -failures uses techniques lending from seismology (geophones), deformation, and meteorology. Landslides, rock falls, pyroclastic flows, and mud flows (lahars) are example of mass failures of volcanic material before, during, and after eruptions.

The most famous volcanic landslide was probably the failure of a bulge that built up from intruding magma before the Mt. St. Helens eruption in 1980, this landslide "uncorked" the shallow magmatic intrusion causing catastrophic failure and an unexpected lateral eruption blast. Rock falls often occur during periods of increased deformation and can be a sign of increased activity in absence of instrumental monitoring. Mud flows (lahars) are remobilized hydrated ash deposits from pyroclastic flows and ash fall deposits, moving downslope even at very shallow angles at high speed. Because of their high density they are capable of moving large objects such as loaded logging trucks, houses, bridges, and boulders. Their deposits usually form a second ring of debris fans around volcanic edifices, the inner fan being primary ash deposits. Downstream of the deposition of their finest load, lahars can still pose a sheet flood hazard from the residual water. Lahar deposits can take many months to dry out, until they can be walked on. The hazards derived from lahar activity can several years after a large explosive eruption.

A team of US scientists developed a method of predicting lahars. Their method was developed by analyzing rocks on Mt. Rainier in Washington. The warning system depends on noting the differences between fresh rocks and older ones. Fresh rocks are poor conductors of electricity and become hydrothermically altered by water and heat. Therefore, if they know the age of the rocks, and therefore the strength of them, they can predict the pathways of a lahar.[5] A system of Acoustic Flow Monitors (AFM) has also been emplaced on Mount Rainier to analyze ground tremors that could result in a lahar, providing an earlier warning.[6]

Local case studies[edit]

Nyiragongo[edit]

The eruption of Mt. Nyiragongo on January 17, 2002 was predicted a week earlier by a local expert who had been watching the volcanoes for years. He informed the local authorities and a UN survey team was dispatched to the area; however, it was declared safe. Unfortunately, when the volcano erupted, 40% of the city of Goma was destroyed along with many people's livelihoods. The expert claimed that he had noticed small changes in the local relief and had monitored the eruption of a much smaller volcano two years earlier. Since he knew that these two volcanoes were connected by a small fissure, he knew that Mt. Nyiragongo would erupt soon.

Mt. Etna[edit]

British geologists have developed a method of predicting future eruptions of Mt. Etna. They have discovered that there is a time lag of 25 years between events that happen below the surface and events that happen on the surface, i.e. a volcanic eruption. The careful monitoring of deep crust events can help predict accurately what will happen in the years to come. So far they have predicted that between 2007 and 2015, volcanic activity will be half of what it was in 1972.[citation needed]

Sakurajima, Japan[edit]

Sakurajima is possibly one of the most monitored areas on earth. The Sakurajima Volcano lies near Kagoshima City, which has a population of 500,000 people. Both the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Kyoto University's Sakurajima Volcanological Observatory (SVO) monitors the volcano's activity. Since 1995, Sakurajima has only erupted from its summit with no release of lava.

Monitoring techniques at Sakurajima:

Likely activity is signalled by swelling of the land around the volcano as magma below begins to build up. At Sakurajima, this is marked by a rise in the seabed in Kagoshima Bay – tide levels rise as a result.

As magma begins to flow, melting and splitting base rock can be detected as volcanic earthquakes. At Sakurajima, they occur two to five kilometres beneath the surface. An underground observation tunnel is used to detect volcanic earthquakes more reliably.

Groundwater levels begin to change, the temperature of hot springs may rise and the chemical composition and amount of gases released may alter. Temperature sensors are placed in bore holes which are used to detect ground water temp. Remotes sensing is used on Sakurajima since the gases are highly toxic – the ratio of HCl gas to SO2 gas increases significantly shortly before an eruption.

As an eruption approaches, tiltmetre systems measure minute movements of the mountain. Data is relayed in real-time to monitoring systems at SVO.

Seismometers detect earthquakes which occur immediately beneath the crater, signaling the onset of the eruption. They occur 1 to 1.5 seconds before the explosion.

With the passing of an explosion, the tiltmeter system records the settling of the volcano.

See also[edit]

Earthquake prediction

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【深谋远虑我猫总】

就目前的形式来看，中国国内的活火山并不是非常多。

活火山还又分为活跃的活火山和不活跃的活火山。估计再怎么地也不会遇到活跃的那种，否则真心没法过了

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马荣火山，今年五月喷发过一次，不知道压力释放干净没，春节时候去

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马荣火山

马荣火山(Mayon Volcano)是位于菲律宾吕宋岛东南部的活火山，它那近乎完美的圆锥形山体，号称“最完美的圆锥体”， (是世界上轮廓最完整的火山），日本富士山仅次于它，经常被人拿来和日本的富士山相媲美，是菲律宾著名的旅游景点，近来的多次濒临喷发，虽然菲律宾政府疏散了附近居民，却反而吸引了许多欲一睹完美火山爆发景象的火山爱好者及摄影爱好者。

马荣火山支配著莱加斯皮(Legaspi)市。号称世界上最完美的火山锥，方圆130公里(80英里)，耸立阿尔拜湾(Albay Gulf)海岸上2,421公尺(7,943英尺)。较低坡有大片蕉麻种植园。1616年以来有30次以上的爆发记录，1993年的爆发导致75人死亡；最具破坏力的一次发生在1814年，当时卡格沙瓦(Cagsawa)城遭掩埋。

马荣火山位于吕宋岛东南部，属于Bicol行政区、阿尔拜省，在首都马尼拉东南方约340公里处。火山东南方约15公里处的Legazpi城，有国内机场可往返马尼拉、宿雾，并有铁路可和其他城市交通。

距菲律宾首都马尼拉大约500公里，是世界上最著名的活火山之一。火山灰和岩浆的喷射高度有时高达100米左右，炽热的熔岩正沿着山坡向下流动。据了解，在马荣火山周围8公里的危险区域内，共居住着大约5万居民。吕宋岛东南岸港口城市黎牙实比也处于马荣火山之下。

据菲律宾火山和地震研究所所长雷纳托-索利杜姆介绍，火山内的岩浆一直在不断上升，估计马荣火山的一场大规模爆发即将到来。索利杜姆说，“现在岩浆仍在翻滚。如果岩浆的高度再继续上升，将可能会导致一场火山大爆发。”火山学家观测到，火红色的炽热熔岩正在滚滚而下，从海拔2463米的山顶向下流动了大约2英里(约合3219米)的距离。

菲律宾火山和地震研究所已将马荣火山的警戒等级提高到三级。火山“三级”警戒意思是“紧急”，即火山即将爆发。为了应对马荣火山的大规模爆发，许多人可能都不得不呆在避难所中度过这个节日。只要马荣火山没有平静的迹象，我们就不会允许他们回家。”15日早晨，当地政府派出了数十辆汽车将村民转移到学校和一些临时避难所中。

在火山学的分类中，马荣火山属于复式火山，对称的圆锥体是经由多次的火山灰和熔岩流喷发、累积的结果。马荣是菲律宾最活跃的火山之一，在过去400年间爆发了50次。

在地质学上，菲律宾位于欧亚板块和菲律宾板块的交界地带，因为板块挤压作用，较重的海洋板块把较轻的大陆板块往上推，推挤过程中强大的压力及高热使得板块熔化，产生岩浆。因此菲律宾有多达22座活火山，全部分布在环太平洋火山带上。

马荣火山是一个活跃的层状火山，也号称是世界上“最完美的火山锥”。它完美对称的圆锥体是火山灰和熔岩多次喷发并累积的结果。自有记录以来，马荣火山第一喷发发生于1616年。近四百年来，菲律宾阿尔拜省的居民已经习惯了马荣火山喷发所带来的威胁。马荣火山最具毁灭性的一次爆发发生于1814年，熔岩流掩埋了整整一座城镇，导致1200多人死亡。此外，马荣火山还于1993年爆发过一次，致79人死亡。

菲律宾地理位置恰好处于太平洋的“火山圈”上，火山和地震等现象都非常频繁。在菲律宾，共有22座活火山。

2009年12月下旬马荣火山活动加剧,菲律宾火山及地震研究院12月20日宣布，马荣火山警戒级别从三级提高至四级，这意味着数日内可能出现大规模剧烈喷发。马荣火山是菲律宾境内最活跃的火山之一，火山上一次喷发是在2006年7月，但未造成人员伤亡。

是菲律宾22座活火山之一，历史上有记载的喷发共47次，第一次记录上的喷发是1616年，上一次(2006年之前)喷发是2001年6月的温和性喷发，造成1200人死亡，马荣肆虐之后，马荣火山的爆发对当地居民和游客构成了极大的威胁，当地政府要求数万人紧急撤离到安全地区。

自1616～1968年，马荣火山共爆发36次，最大的一次是1814年2月1日，火山岩浆埋没了卡葛沙威镇，有1200人丧生，只剩下卡葛沙威教堂的塔尖露出地面。马荣火山今仍时常喷出大量烟雾。最壮观的一次喷发发生在1897年6月，当时马荣火山在连续7天内持续喷射熔岩。

1993年2月2日下午1时15分，马荣火山又爆发，喷出的岩灰最高高度达4500米。火山下土壤肥沃，风景优美。

2009年12月，马荣火山直径600公尺、深300米的火山口，开始打破平静，不断地喷出火山灰和岩浆，到 12月14日，岩浆溢出火山口。12月27日夜，马荣火山首次在夜间喷发岩浆，伴随着轰轰的爆炸声，在明朗的月光下，火山如一朵盛开在夜空中的红玫瑰。

2010年1月1日左右大规模喷发，火山向空中喷发的圆柱形火山灰高度将达到10千米左右。

2013年5月7日，马荣火山发生小规模喷发，已经造成5人死亡，另有7人受伤。

自菲律宾著名的马荣火山于2001年6月23日晚强烈爆发以来，每天仍有岩浆自火山口溢出，并流向山下，还发生了十几次短促震颤和小规模的火山地震。2001年7月2日高空俯拍的照片也显示，灰色的烟雾仍不断从火山口冒出。专家警告说，马荣火山仍有再次爆发的可能。因此，火山和地震研究所宣布，最高的五级警戒状态，即“火山正在爆发的状态”依然有效，在此状态下，村民和旅游者被禁止进入火山周围8公里以内。

来自菲律宾国内外的火山爱好者、研究人员和探险者蜂拥来到临近马荣火山的莱加斯皮市，他们很快挤满了该市的各大酒店和度假村。旅游观光部副部长奥斯卡说：“虽然马荣火山的爆发造成了重大损失，但对旅游业的影响却是正面的。某种意义上是一种‘旅游性爆发’”。

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下面是2013年的火山活动情况，就不翻译啦

2013 Phreatic eruption[edit]

On May 7, 2013, at 8 a.m. (PST), the volcano produced a surprise phreatic eruption lasting 73 seconds. Ash and rock were produced during this eruption. Ash clouds reached 500 meters above the volcano's summit, which drifted west southwest.[47] The event killed five climbers, of whom three were Germans, one was a Spaniard living in Germany,[48][49] and one was a Filipino tour guide. Seven others were reported injured.[50][51] The bodies of the hikers had already been spotted by the authorities.[52] However, due to rugged and slippery terrain, the hikers' remains were slowly transferred from Camp 2 to Camp 1. Camp 1 is the site of the rescue operations set on the foot of the volcano. According Dr. Butch Rivera of Bicol Regional Training and Teaching Hospital, the hikers died due to trauma in their bodies, and suffocation.[53] Authorities were also able to rescue a Thai national who was also reported to hike the volcano. He was unable to walk due to fatigue when found, had a broken right arm and burns on the neck and back but was in stable condition.[54]

Despite the eruption, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology stated that the alert level will still remain at alert level 0.[51] Also, no volcanic earthquake activity was detected within the past 24 hour observation period and there was no indication of further intensification of volcanic activity,[55] and no evacuation was being planned.[56]

International response[edit]

The government of the United Kingdom advised its nationals to follow the advisories given by the local authorities, and respect the 6 km permanent danger zone.[57] The advisory was given a day after the phreatic explosion that had occurred last May 7, 2013.[58]

Deadly lahars[edit]

The church tower is what remains of the Cagsawa Church, which was buried by the 1814 eruption of Mayon Volcano. It withstood the damage done by Typhoon Durian in 2006.

Following the eruption of 2006, on November 30 of that year, strong rainfall which accompanied Typhoon Durian produced lahars from the volcanic ash and boulders of the last eruption killing at least 1,266 people. The precise figure may never be known since many people were buried under the mudslides.[4] A large portion of the village of Padang (an outer suburb of Legazpi City) was covered in mud up to the houses' roofs.[59][60] Students from Aquinas University in Barangay Rawis, also in Legazpi, were among those killed as mudslides engulfed their dormitory. Central Legazpi escaped the mudslide but suffered from severe flooding and power cuts.

Parts of the town of Daraga were also devastated, including the Cagsawa area, where the ruins from the eruption of 1814 were partially buried once again. Large areas of Guinobatan, Albay were destroyed, particularly Barangay Maipon.

Similar post-eruption lahar occurred in October 1766, months after the July eruption of that year. The heavy rainfall also accompanying a violent typhoon carried down disintegrated fragmental ejecta, burying plantations and whole villages. In 1825, the event was repeated in Cagsawa killing 1,500 people.[61]

Monitoring Mayon[edit]

Mayon Volcano is the most active volcano in the Philippines, and its activity is regularly monitored by PHIVOLCS from their provincial headquarters on Lignon Hill, about 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) SSE from the summit.[14]

Three telemetric units are installed on Mayon's slopes, which send information to the seven seismometers in different locations around the volcano. These instruments relay data to the Lignon Hill observatory and the PHIVOLCS central headquarters on the University of the Philippines Diliman campus.

PHIVOLCS also deploys electronic distance meters (EDMs), precise leveling benchmarks, and portable fly spectrometers to monitor the volcano's daily activity.[62]

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